Analyst - ECL & Loss forecasting

Job Purpose

We are looking for a proactive, analytical, and detaildriven ECL & Loss Forecasting Analyst to join our team. The ideal candidate will bring handson experience in IFRS 9 ECL provisioning & Loss Forecasting with a solid grounding in data analysis, statistical modelling, and financial risk reporting. The role involves deep analysis of vintage trends, roll rates, collections behaviour, and macroeconomic linkages to deliver accurate and actionable loss projections. The role requires strong technical proficiency in R, SQL, and Excel, along with the ability to interpret model outputs, identify trends, and communicate insights clearly to stakeholders. Candidates should demonstrate a passion for problemsolving, an eagerness to learn, and the discipline to work within rigorous risk and control frameworks.

Key responsibilities

• Forecast credit losses at product, segment, and portfolio levels using: Vintage and Cohort Modelling, Roll-rate and Flow rate analysis, Markov chain, survival models, and statistical forecasting approaches
• Develop ECL Framework basis INDAS including development of PD, LGD and EAD Models
• Monthly execution and monitoring of ECL Models
• Calculate key ECL metrics and performance indicators to monitor model behaviour and portfolio risk trends.
• Actual vs. Expected tracking with portfolio deep dives
• Analyse the impact of underwriting changes, policy shifts, and macroeconomic factors on loss performance
• Monitor model performance, stability, and recalibration triggers

Qualification & experience

• 2 to 4 years of relevant experience in loss forecasting, credit risk modelling, portfolio analytics, or ECL modelling in an NBFC/BFSI environment
• Graduate / Post-graduate degree in Engineering /Economics/Stats/ Maths or any equivalent Quantitative area.

Essential skills

• Strong command of Excel, SQL, Python/R, and statistical modelling.
• Proficiency in forecasting methods: time series, GLM, survival analysis, Markov models
• Knowledge and exposure to ECL framework and workings
• Strong Business Acumen with out of the box thinking
• Strong Strategic and Tactical communications Skills
• Ability to work independently