Analyzing Past Indian Stock Market Reactions to Crisis: A Long-Term Investor's Perspective

Join CA Rachana Ranade, a seasoned financial analyst, as she delves into the impact of global events like strikes and wars on the Indian stock market, offering valuable insights and predictions for investors.

  • Here are 22 clean bullet points summarizing the video:
  • The video is about analyzing past events to predict future market trends.
  • The analysis will be based on historical data, without mixing emotions with the analysis.
  • Pulwama attack (14th Feb 2019): Market fell by 0.2% and then resumed its upward journey.
  • Air strikes in response to Pulwama attack: Market was down by 0.26% on the next day but resumed its upward journey.
  • In 2019, India was in an uptrend before the Pulwama attack.
  • The trend did not change after the attack; it continued its upward trajectory.
  • Pathankot Attack (2nd-5th Jan 2016):
  • Market fell by 2% during the attack and continued to fall.
  • This is different from the reaction to the Pulwama attack, which saw a recovery.
  • URI Attack (18th Sep 2016):
  • Market was up by 0.33% on the next day after the attack but then continued to fall.
  • The market tried to stabilize for 2-3 days before continuing its downward trend.
  • Market was in a sideways trend before the attacks and continued to be so afterward.
  • In each of these events, the market trend did not change; it either resumed an upward trajectory or remained sideways.
  • The key takeaway is that markets tend to stay invested at all times.
  • Kargil War (23rd May-26th July 1999): Market went up by 37% during the war, contrary to expectations.
  • This suggests that the market may have "preempted" India's victory in the war.
  • Current Situation (Pahalgam Attack):
  • The market was up by 0.67% on the next day after the attack and is currently in a sideways trend.
  • The key takeaway from this analysis is that markets tend to stay invested at all times, even during times of uncertainty or crisis.
  • The video aims to emphasize the importance of staying updated and invested in the market, regardless of external events.
  • Viewers are encouraged to visit Rachana Ranade's website (rachanaranade.com) for more information.

Source: CA Rachana Phadke Ranade via YouTube

❓ What do you think? What would happen to the Indian stock market if India were to engage in a full-scale war, and how might this impact long-term investor decisions? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!