Analyzing Past Indian Stock Market Reactions to Crisis: A Long-Term Investor's Perspective
Join CA Rachana Ranade, a seasoned financial analyst, as she delves into the impact of global events like strikes and wars on the Indian stock market, offering valuable insights and predictions for investors.
- Here are 22 clean bullet points summarizing the video:
- The video is about analyzing past events to predict future market trends.
- The analysis will be based on historical data, without mixing emotions with the analysis.
- Pulwama attack (14th Feb 2019): Market fell by 0.2% and then resumed its upward journey.
- Air strikes in response to Pulwama attack: Market was down by 0.26% on the next day but resumed its upward journey.
- In 2019, India was in an uptrend before the Pulwama attack.
- The trend did not change after the attack; it continued its upward trajectory.
- Pathankot Attack (2nd-5th Jan 2016):
- Market fell by 2% during the attack and continued to fall.
- This is different from the reaction to the Pulwama attack, which saw a recovery.
- URI Attack (18th Sep 2016):
- Market was up by 0.33% on the next day after the attack but then continued to fall.
- The market tried to stabilize for 2-3 days before continuing its downward trend.
- Market was in a sideways trend before the attacks and continued to be so afterward.
- In each of these events, the market trend did not change; it either resumed an upward trajectory or remained sideways.
- The key takeaway is that markets tend to stay invested at all times.
- Kargil War (23rd May-26th July 1999): Market went up by 37% during the war, contrary to expectations.
- This suggests that the market may have "preempted" India's victory in the war.
- Current Situation (Pahalgam Attack):
- The market was up by 0.67% on the next day after the attack and is currently in a sideways trend.
- The key takeaway from this analysis is that markets tend to stay invested at all times, even during times of uncertainty or crisis.
- The video aims to emphasize the importance of staying updated and invested in the market, regardless of external events.
- Viewers are encouraged to visit Rachana Ranade's website (rachanaranade.com) for more information.
Source: CA Rachana Phadke Ranade via YouTube
❓ What do you think? What would happen to the Indian stock market if India were to engage in a full-scale war, and how might this impact long-term investor decisions? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!